Capital flows, exchange rateregime and monetary policy 资本流动、汇率 制度规定与货币政策.pdf

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1、Capitalflows,exchangerateregimeandmonetarypolicy1SwetaCSaxenaIntroductionFinancialglobalisationcanprovidesignificantbenefitstodevelopingcountriesbutatthesametimeposessignificantrisks.Thereisstrongevidencetosuggestthatdevelopingeconomiescouldbenefitfromfinancia

2、lglobalisation,giventhatcertainframeworkconditions2arefulfilled.Hence,thereisatrendtowardsopencapitalaccounts,asillustratedbyMalaysia,whichrecentlyshedcontrolsthathadbeenbroughtin1998intheaftermathoftheAsiancrisis.Themovetowardshighercapitalmobilityconfrontsce

3、ntralbankswithsomedifficultchoicesinimplementingmonetarypolicy:1.Controlofexchangerateorinterestrate?Ifcentralbankswanttostabiliseexchangerates,theyhavetoaccepttheconsequencesfordomesticinterestrates.Iftheywishtogaincontrolovertheirdomesticinterestrates,thenth

4、eyhavetoaccepthighervolatilityintheirexchangerates.Hence,theirindependencetochooseinterestratescanbeconstrainedunderanopencapitalaccount.2.Exchangerateorinflationasthenominalanchor?Themovetowardsinflationtargetingimpliesgivinguptheexchangerateasthenominalancho

5、rformonetarypolicy,whichmeansfloatingexchangerateswithhighervolatility.Doesthismeanthatthecentralbankshouldnotcareaboutexchangeratestabilityassuch?Conventionalwisdomwouldhavecentralbankspayattentiontotheexchangerateifitinterfereswiththepricestabilitygoal.Butwh

6、athappenswhentheeconomyisdollarised(Peru)orsomecontractsaredenominatedinforeigncurrency(Israel)?Whatshouldcountriesthatarebuildingnetforeignliabilities(denominatedinforeigncurrency)dowhenfacedwiththechoiceofexchangeratestabilityvis-à-vispricestability?Thispape

7、rwilladdresssomeoftheseissues.Toforeshadowthemainresults,thepaperfindsthattheemergingmarketshavebecomemorefinanciallyglobalised,ascanbeseeninabuild-upofgrossforeignassetandliabilitypositions,increasedpresenceofforeigninvestorsinlocalcurrencybondmarketsandincre

8、asingcorrelationsofstockmarketsintheemergingmarketswiththoseoftheindustrialcountries.Infact,somecountrieshavebeenabletoissuelonger-termlocalcurrencybondsintheinternationalmarkets,i