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ID:51269440
大小:536.00 KB
页数:135页
时间:2020-03-20
《微观经济学及财务知识分析范文p.ppt》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在PPT专区-天天文库。
1、Chapter5ChoiceUnderUncertainty1Chapter1TopicstobeDiscussedDescribingRiskPreferencesTowardRiskReducingRiskTheDemandforRiskyAssets2Chapter1IntroductionChoicewithcertaintyisreasonablystraightforward.Howdowechoosewhencertainvariablessuchasincomeandpricesareuncertain(i.e.makingchoiceswithrisk)?
2、3Chapter1DescribingRiskTomeasureriskwemustknow:1)Allofthepossibleoutcomes.2)Thelikelihoodthateachoutcomewilloccur(itsprobability).4Chapter1DescribingRiskInterpretingProbabilityThelikelihoodthatagivenoutcomewilloccur5Chapter1DescribingRiskInterpretingProbabilityObjectiveInterpretationBasedo
3、ntheobservedfrequencyofpastevents6Chapter1DescribingRiskInterpretingProbabilitySubjectiveBasedonperceptionorexperiencewithorwithoutanobservedfrequencyDifferentinformationordifferentabilitiestoprocessthesameinformationcaninfluencethesubjectiveprobability7Chapter1DescribingRiskExpectedValueT
4、heweightedaverageofthepayoffsorvaluesresultingfromallpossibleoutcomes.TheprobabilitiesofeachoutcomeareusedasweightsExpectedvaluemeasuresthecentraltendency;thepayofforvalueexpectedonaverage8Chapter1DescribingRiskAnExampleInvestmentinoffshoredrillingexploration:TwooutcomesarepossibleSuccess-
5、-thestockpriceincreasefrom$30to$40/shareFailure--thestockpricefallsfrom$30to$20/share9Chapter1DescribingRiskAnExampleObjectiveProbability100explorations,25successesand75failuresProbability(Pr)ofsuccess=1/4andtheprobabilityoffailure=3/410Chapter1DescribingRiskAnExample:ExpectedValue(EV)11Ch
6、apter1DescribingRiskGiven:TwopossibleoutcomeshavingpayoffsX1andX2ProbabilitiesofeachoutcomeisgivenbyPr1&Pr212Chapter1DescribingRiskGenerally,expectedvalueiswrittenas:13Chapter1DescribingRiskVariabilityTheextenttowhichpossibleoutcomesofanuncertainevenmaydiffer14Chapter1DescribingRiskAScenar
7、ioSupposeyouarechoosingbetweentwopart-timesalesjobsthathavethesameexpectedincome($1,500)Thefirstjobisbasedentirelyoncommission.Thesecondisasalariedposition.Variability15Chapter1DescribingRiskAScenarioTherearetwoequallylikelyoutcomesinthefirstjob--$2,000foragoo
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