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1、CHAPTER9TheHealthCareMarketCopyright©2010bytheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinU.S.ExpendituresofSelectedGoodsandServicesasShareofGDP(1960-2007)Source:USBureauoftheCensus[2009,pp.95,425],andNationalIncomeandProductAccountsSocialInsura
2、nceSocialinsurance-governmentprogramsthatprovideinsurancetoprotectagainstadverseeventsExamplesMedicaidMedicareSocialSecurityUnemploymentCompensationHowHealthInsuranceWorksInsurancepremiumExpectedValueExpectedvalue(EV)=probabilityofoutcome1)*(Payoutinoutcome1)+p
3、robabilityofoutcome2)*(Payoutinoutcome2)+…+(probabilityofoutcomen)*(Payoutinoutcomen)ExpectedValueComputationDrawcardsfromdeckofcardsDrawheartandreceive$12Drawspade,diamondorclubandlose$4Probabilityofdrawingheart=13/52=¼Probabilityofdrawingspade,diamondorclub=3
4、9/52=¾EV=(1/4)($12)+(3/4)(-$4)=$0WhyBuyInsurance?InsuranceOptionsIncomeProbabilityofStayingHealthyProbabilityofGettingSickLostIncomeifSheGetsSick(A)(B)(C)IncomeifSheStaysHealthyIncomeifSheGetsSickExpectedValueOption1:NoInsurance$50,0009in101in10$30,000$50,000$2
5、0,000$47,000Option2:FullInsurance($3,000premiumtocover$30,000inlosses$50,0009in101in10$30,000$47,000$47,000$47,000ActuariallyFairInsurancePolicyWhyPeopleBuyInsuranceIncomeUtility20,00047,00050,000UAUCUDUBDCBAExpectedUtilityRiskSmoothingDoPeopleBuyInsurancewithL
6、oadingFees?RiskAversionRiskPremiumLoadingFeeTheRoleofRiskPoolingInsuranceinasmallpopulationInsuranceinalargepopulationLawoflargenumbersAdverseSelectionintheHealthInsuranceMarketAsymmetricinformationAsymmetricInformationandAdverseSelection(A)(B)(C)(D)(E)(F)Expec
7、tedBenefitExpectedBenefitExpectedBenefitProbabilityofLostIncomeExpectedMinusPremiumMinusPremiumMinusPremiumInsuranceBuyerGettingSickifSickLostIncome(DifferentialPremiums)(Premium=$3,000)(Premium=$4,500)Emily1in5(HighRisk)$30,000$6,000$0$3,000$1,500Jacob1in5(Hig
8、hRisk)$30,000$6,000$0$3,000$1,500Emma1in5(HighRisk)$30,000$6,000$0$3,000$1,500Michael1in5(HighRisk)$30,000$6,000$0$3,000$1,500Madison1in5(HighRisk)$30,000$6,000$0$3,000$1,50
