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1、EconomicConditionsSnapshot,September2015McKinseyGlobalSurveyresultsExecutives’viewsdeteriorate,amidrisingconcernsovervolatilityandexpectationsforonlymodestgrowthinChina.Executivesaremoredownbeataboutthestateoftheglobaleconomynowthanatanytimethisyear,accordingtoMcKinsey’slatestsurveyone
2、conomicconditions.1Recentturmoilinglobalmarketshasfueledconcernoverthestrengthofrespondents’homeeconomies—andoftheworldeconomy,too.Atthesametime,executivescitevolatileeconomicconditionsandexchangeratesasemergingthreatstobothdomesticandglobalgrowthintheshortterm.Amajoritypredictthatoilp
3、riceswillstaylowinthenextyear,whichcouldpotentiallyspurfuturegrowth.It’sunclear,though,howmuchagrowthspurtfromoilpricescouldoffsettheeconomicrisksposedbyincreasedvolatility.Executivesinemergingmarketsareparticularlyconcernedwithvolatilityathome—especiallyinChina,wherefour-fifthsofrespo
4、ndentssaytheireconomyhasworsenedinthepastsixmonths.Acrossregions,thedomesticandglobaleconomicoutlookforthecomingmonthsismoretempered.ThesameistrueofexpectationsforChina’seconomy,whichmostrespondentsbelievewillmeet(orcomecloseto)theChinesegovernment’s2015growthtargetof7percent.2Jean-Fra
5、nçoisMartinSurvey2Volatilityontherise015Asarisktoshort-termdomesticgrowth,volatilityiscitedmoreoftennowthaninprevioussurveys.AtEconomicsnapshot,September2015Exhibit1of6home,volatileeconomicconditionsandexchangeratesaregreaterworriesforemerging-marketexecutives,especiallyinChina(Exhibit
6、1).Forty-ninepercentofexecutivesthereciteoveralleconomicvolatilityasarisktodomesticgrowthinthenextyear,comparedwith27percentofotherrespondents.Exhibit1Increasingvolatilityisaheightenedconcernamongemerging-marketexecutives—especiallythoseinChina.%ofrespondents,byofficelocationPotentialri
7、skstodomesticeconomicgrowth,1next12monthsChina,Allotherregions,n=91n=1,797Lowconsumerdemand5234Increasedeconomicvolatility4927Newassetbubbles3816Increasedvolatilityofexchangerates3121Insufficientgovernment-policysupport18321Outof12risksthatwerepresentedasanswerchoices.2McKinseyGlobalS
