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1、Session#12Page1Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®TorunasimulationusingCrystalBall®:1.SetupSpreadsheetBuildaspreadsheetthatwillcalculatetheperformancemeasure(e.g.,profit)intermsoftheinputs(randomornot).Forrandominputs,justenteranynumber.2.DefineAssumptions—i.e.
2、,randomvariablesDefinewhichcellsarerandom,andwhatdistributiontheyshouldfollow.3.DefineForecast—i.e.,outputorperformancemeasureDefinewhichcell(s)youareinterestedinforecasting(typicallytheperformancemeasure,e.g.,profit).4.ChooseNumberofTrialsSelectthenumberoftrials.IfyouwouldlaterliketogeneratetheSens
3、itivityAnalysischart,choose―SensitivityAnalysis‖underOptionsinRunPreferences.5.RunSimulationRunthesimulation.Ifyouwouldliketochangeparametersandre-runthesimulation,youshould―reset‖thesimulation(clickonthe―ResetSimulation‖buttononthetoolbarorintheRunmenu)first.6.ViewResultsTheforecastwindowshowingthe
4、resultsofthesimulationappearsautomaticallyafter(orduring)thesimulation.Manydifferentresultsareavailable(frequencychart,cumulativechart,statistics,percentiles,sensitivityanalysis,andtrendchart).Theresultscanbecopiedintotheworksheet.CrystalBallToolbar:Session#12Page2Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBal
5、l®DefineDefineRunStartResetForecastTrendAssumptionsForecastPreferencesSimulationSimulationWindowChartSession#12Page3Monte-CarloSimulationwithCrystalBall®WaltonBookstoreSimulationwithCrystalBall®RecalltheWaltonBookstoreexample:ItisAugust,andtheymustdecidehowmanyofnextyear’snaturecalendarstoorder.Each
6、calendarcoststhebookstore$7.50andissoldfor$10.AfterFebruary,allunsoldcalendarsarereturnedtothepublisherforarefundof$2.50percalendar.SupposeWaltonpredictsdemandwillbesomewherebetween100and300(discreteuniform).Demand=d~Uniform[100,300]OrderQuantity=Q(decisionvariable)Revenue=$10*Min(Q,d)Cost=$7.50*QRe
7、fund=$2.50*Max(Q–d,0)Profit=Revenue–Cost+RefundStep#1(SetupSpreadsheet)ABCDEF1SimulationofWalton'sBookstore23Data4UnitCost=$7.505UnitPrice=$10.006UnitRefund=$2.5078DemandDistribution(Uniform)9Minimum=
