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1、BPEnergyOutlook2030London,January2011DisclaimerThispresentationcontainsforward-lookingstatements,particularlythoseregardingglobaleconomicgrowth,populationgrowth,energyconsumption,policysupportforrenewableenergiesandsourcesofenergysupply.Forward-looking
2、statementsinvolverisksanduncertaintiesbecausetheyrelatetoevents,anddependoncircumstances,thatwillormayoccurinthefuture.Actualresultsmaydifferdependingonavarietyoffactors,includingproductsupply,demandandpricing;politicalstability;generaleconomicconditio
3、ns;legalandregulatorydevelopments;availabilityofnewtechnologies;naturaldisastersandadverseweatherconditions;warsandactsofterrorismorsabotage;andotherfactorsdiscussedelsewhereinthispresentation.EnergyOutlook20302©BP2011ContentsPageIntroduction4Globalene
4、rgytrends7Oil(andotherliquidfuels)25Gas,powerandcoal45Whatcanbendthetrend?63Keythemes75Datasources80EnergyOutlook20303©BP2011WelcometoBP’sEnergyOutlook2030.Theoutlookforglobalenergyisnotjustamatterforenergycompanies:it’sanissueforallofus.Aroundtheworld
5、,thereisalivelyandimportantconversationtakingplaceonthechoicesthatfaceusall–asconsumers,producers,investorsandpolicy-makers.BysharingthisEnergyOutlook,wehopetocontributetothatdiscussion.OurstartingpointincontributingtothisdebatehasbeenBP’sworkontheStat
6、isticalReviewofWorldEnergy,whichthisyearcelebratesits60thanniversary.TheStatisticalReview,whichdocumentstrendsintheproductionanduseofenergy,startedoutasaninternalBPdocumentandwasmadepublicforthefirsttimein1956.Inasimilarway,theEnergyOutlook,whichcontai
7、nsourprojectionsoffutureenergytrends,hasbeenusedonlyinternallysofar.However,wefeelitispartofourresponsibilityasacompanytomakeimportantinformationandanalysisavailableforpublicdebate–allthemoresoiftheissueathandisasvitaltoallofusasisenergy,itsrelationtoe
8、conomicdevelopmentononeside,andtoclimatechangeontheother.Inthisoutlookweseektoidentifylongtermenergytrends,andthenaddourviewsontheevolutionoftheworldeconomy,ofpolicy,andtechnology,todevelopaprojectionforworldenergymarketsto2030.Itisapro
