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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyForofficeuseonlyT145969F1T2F2T3F3ProblemChosenT4F4E2016MCM/ICMSummarySheetTheanalysisofwatercarryingcapacityinthefutureExecutiveSummaryWaterresourcescarryingcapacitymeanstheabilitytoprovideenoughwaterresourcestosupportthesustainabledevelopment
2、oflocalsocialeconomyande-cologicalenvironment.Soitischosenasameasureoftheabilityofaregiontoprovidecleanwater,whichiscalculatedfromthequantitativeandqualitativean-gle.Onbasisof"economy-waterquantity"theory,thescaleanddegreeofwaterresourcescapacityareevaluatedquantitatively.T
3、hen,afterdeterminingtheevalu-ationindexsystem,weanalyzethecoordinationdegreequalitativelybasedonthemulti-objectivelinearweightingfunctionmethod.TheHaiHeRiverBasinischosenastheobjecttoexplainwhyandhowwaterisscarceinthatregion.Byapplyingforegoingmodels,thewaterresourcescarryi
4、ngcapacityandcoordinationdegreearecalculated.Wefindthatdegreeofcarryingcapacityrangefrom65%to70%,amoderatelyoverloadedstate,andcoordinationdegreeis0.432,anumberofcommonlevel.Theresultsalsoshowthatthecarryingcapacitydecreasesallthetimewhilethecoordinationincreaseswithtime.Aft
5、eranalyzingthetrendofamountofwater,theutilizationofwater,populationandpollution,wefinditisthelackoftechnologyandtheincreasinguseofwaterthatleadtothewatershortagesituation.Asforthepredictionofcarryingcapacityinthefuture,ontheonehand,thebasicindexesarepredictedbasedonthenation
6、aldevelopmentplanandthusthecarryingcapacityvaluecanbegotteneasily.Ontheotherhand,basedontheim-provedGreyGM(1,1)Markovmodel,thespecificvaluesofallclassifiedindexesinthefutureareforecastedandthethuscoordinationdegreecanbeobtained.By2030,waterresourcescarryingcapacitywillreach63
7、%,amoderatelyoverloadedstate,andcoordinationdegreeis0.856,anumberofverygoodlevel.Consideringthefactorsleadingtowatershortage,waterissupposedtobetransferredintoHaiHeRiverBasin,whichincreasestheamountofwatersupplied.Then,waterisallocatedreasonablyutilizingmulti-objectivefunct
8、ionmodel.Thebenefitofeconomy,society,ecologyandenvironmentareoptimizedsothattheycan