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1、ResearchAnalystsAlexanderRedman442078836896alex.redman@credit-suisse.comArunSai442078830002arun.sai@credit-suisse.comGlobalEMEquityStrategySTRATEGYIsthe2019Chinaequitiesrallyallover?Figure1:MSCIChinaindicesrelativeperformanceversusMSCIEM(USdollarterms,rebasedto1/1/19)15014
2、0130120MSCIChinaA/EMMSCIOverseasChina/EM110MSCIChinaRed&PChips/EM100MSCIChina/EM9080Jan17May17Sep17Jan18May18Sep18Jan19May19Source:MSCI,CreditSuisseresearch■TheAsharesmarket(CSI300)hasfallenby11%sincethe19Aprilpeak,givingbackathirdofyear-to-datelocalcurrencyreturn,albeitst
3、illupby22%in2019.Despiteintensifyingambiguityontradeanditsimpactonglobalgrowthcoupledwithwhatisseasonallyachallengingperiodforriskassets,werecommittoour5%overweightstanceonChinawithinaGEMequityportfolioidentifyingtenreasonswhyallocatorsshouldresistcapitulatingonChineseasset
4、s.WeretainourviewthataresolutiontotheUS-Chinatradeconflictwillultimatelybeconfirmedas,inourview,itispoliticallyinexpedientforPresidentTrump's2020reelectionprospectstoperpetuateeconomicuncertaintyandfinancialmarketvolatility.■SupportingthecaseforChina,wearguethat:(i)rehabili
5、tatingtheequitymarketisintegraltothedeleveragingprogram;(ii)Chinaisencouraginggreaterforeignparticipationindomesticmarkets;(iii)institutionalizationcombinedwithadministrativemarketdampeningshouldhelpcontainthemoreextrememovesseenin2007/08and2015;(iv)growthinChina'seconomica
6、ctivityshowsevidenceofstabilization;(v)themonetarypolicyenvironmentremainsaccommodativeforequities;(vi)despitelastweek,wedonotforeseearepeatofthescaleof2018'sRMBvolatility;(vii)Chinarealestatesalesremainbuoyantwhileinventorieshavecleared;(viii)anuptickinnon-financialsectorR
7、OEisboostingChina'svaluecreation;(ix)althoughEPSisdisappointing,revisionsmomentumhasturnedup;and(x)valuationsarediscountedrelativetoEM,albeitnotaggressivelyso.■OurscreenforvaluecreatingChinesestockswithpositiveearningsmomentumrated'Outperform'byCreditSuisseyields20namesincl
8、udingTencent,PingAnInsurance,KweichowMoutai,WuliangyeYibin,ChinaTowerCorp,FoxconnI
