中美贸易摩擦专题报告

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1、11June2018AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchStrategyChinaMarketStrategyResearchAnalystsCONNECTIONSSERIESVincentChan85221016568vincent.chan@credit-suisse.comChina-UStradeconflictsHuShen85221016540hu.shen@credit-suisse.comIncrementalsectorimpactifChinabecomesthelargestimporterofPea

2、rlXucars,naturalgasandbeeffromtheUS85221016325pearl.xu@credit-suisse.com(2017)6.5%BinWang6.2%85221016702bin.wang@credit-suisse.comDaveDai,CFA4.3%85221017358dave.dai@credit-suisse.comHoraceTse2.8%85221017379horace.tse@credit-suisse.comKynaWong85221016950kyna.wong@credit-suisse.

3、comRichardKersley442078880313richard.kersley@credit-suisse.com%ofapparentbeef%ofapparentgas%ofsalesbyallauto%ofsalesbykeyautoAlexanderRedman442078836896consumptionconsumptionenterprisesenterprisesalex.redman@credit-suisse.comSource:CEIC,www.chyxx.com,WINDDatabaseWilliamFeather

4、ston2123256283InviewoftheongoingUS-Chinatradedisputes,weevaluatethepotentialwilliam.featherston@credit-suisse.comimplications,drawingfromtheinsightsofourChinaandglobalanalysts.SusanRothKatzke2123251237■Underlyingtensionsandpotentialcompromises.Thenear-termsusan.katzke@credit-s

5、uisse.comdiscussionislikelytofocusonexpandingUSgoodsexportstoChina.WeMosheOrenbuchexpectenergy,agriculturalproductsandautomobile(includingparts)tobe2125386795majorareasthatChinawillexpanditsimportsin.TheUSdeficitisexpectedmoshe.orenbuch@credit-suisse.comClaireKane,CFAtoreduceb

6、y~US$41bn,ifChinabecomesthebiggestimporterofautos,442078835350beefandnaturalgasfromtheUS.Theimpactonsectorearningslevelinclaire.kane@credit-suisse.commostcaseswouldbesmallthough.OpeningupthefinancialsectorwouldFarooqHanif,FIAprobablybeamajorpointofservicessectorliberalisation.

7、442078880499farooq.hanif@credit-suisse.com■ThefutureofChinaastheworkshopoftheworld.ContinuoustradeTomMillsdisputescouldleadtoChina’sreducingdominanceasaglobalproduction442078888204base,particularlyinelectronics.Thiscouldhavesomenegativetom.mills@credit-suisse.comconsequenceson

8、China’stechnologicaldevelopmentpush,andtheimpactDanielSchwarz