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ID:36449902
大小:4.33 MB
页数:99页
时间:2019-05-10
《软件项目风险管理理论与模型研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、天津大学博士学位论文软件项目风险管理理论与模型研究姓名:冯楠申请学位级别:博士专业:信息管理与信息系统指导教师:李敏强20070501AbstractRiskisubiquitousintheprocessofinVestmentordeVelopmentandimplementationofsoftwareproject.RiskmanagementbecomesmoreimponantwiththeincreaseofsoRwarecomplexit),andrequirement.ItisanurgentproblemtostudytheStrate
2、giestoanalyzeandcontrolrisk.Themaincontentsofthispaperareasf0110ws:Fi幅ny,thehisto巧andstate—of二the—artoftheriskmanagementarereViewedbothdomestically粕dabroad.Then,theconceptsaboutriskm明agementandso脚areriskmanagementaredennedbasedontheconceptofrisk.Thetheoreticalfoundationofriskmanag
3、ementandtheparticularityofso讯Ⅳareprojectriskmanagementarediscussedindetail.ARerfours够lesofriskmanagementsystemsareanalyzed,theiradyantagesanddisadVantagesarecompared.Third修,basedonestablishingariskeValuationsystemofso传wareprojects,ariskeValuationmodeIofsoftwareprojectinVestrllentb
4、asedonArtmcialNeuralNetwork(AjNN)isproposed.Themodeliscapabletoevaluaterisksef绝ctivelyintheprocessofsomⅣareprojectinVestmentbyVeri母ingthedataofsof℃wareprojects.Andintheprocessofmodeling,thefactoranalysisisutilizedtodecreasedimensionofsampledataandanoptimizationalgorithmbasedonthep
5、rincipleofgoldensectionisdesignedto行ndtheoptimalnumberofhiddenlayernode&Fourth坶,adynamicriskmanagementmodelofsofhⅣareprojectdevelopmentispr叩osed.Themodelcanmonitorriskstatescontinuallybyusingrisktrackmoduleandthenadjustrisklistaccordingt0thechangeofriskstatessothattheactivitiesoff
6、iskm锄agementmnintheflowwithfeedback.Fifth妙,AriskanalysisimplementationflowbasedonBayesianNetworks(BNs)forriskanalysismoduleispresented.Inaddition,theBNsisappliedt0riskanalysismoduleofarealcase.Themethodcanupdateriskdataandchangethestatesof“sknodesonline.nisfundamentaltoimplementdy
7、namic“skmanagementintheprocessofso觚,aredeVelopment.IntheprocessofmodelingBNs,thestructurelearningandpar啪eter1e踟ingofBNsaureanalyzeddetailedly.Atlast,aftersummarizingmaincontentdiscussedint11ispaper,potentialresearchdirectionsarepointedout.Keywords:s。fhvareproject,riskmanagement,Ar
8、t讯cialNeuralNetwork(ANN),Bayesian
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