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1、+SlappedintheFacebytheInvisibleHand:BankingandthePanicof2007GaryGortonYaleandNBERPreparedfortheFederalReserveBankofAtlanta’s2009FinancialMarketsConference:FinancialInnovationandCrisis,May11-13,2009Thisversion:May9,2009AbstractThe“shadowbankingsystem,”attheheartofthec
2、urrentcreditcrisisis,infact,arealbankingsystem–andisvulnerabletoabankingpanic.Indeed,theeventsstartinginAugust2007areabankingpanic.Abankingpanicisasystemiceventbecausethebankingsystemcannothonoritsobligationsandisththinsolvent.Unlikethehistoricalbankingpanicsofthe19a
3、ndearly20centuries,thecurrentbankingpanicisawholesalepanic,notaretailpanic.Intheearlierepisodes,depositorsrantotheirbanksanddemandedcashinexchangefortheircheckingaccounts.Unabletomeetthosedemands,thebankingsystembecameinsolvent.Thecurrentpanicinvolvedfinancialfirms“r
4、unning”onotherfinancialfirmsbynotrenewingsaleandrepurchaseagreements(repo)orincreasingtherepomargin(“haircut”),forcingmassivedeleveraging,andresultinginthebankingsystembeinginsolvent.Theearlierepisodeshavemanyfeaturesincommonwiththecurrentcrisis,andexaminationofhisto
5、rycanhelpunderstandthecurrentsituationandguidethoughtsaboutreformofbankregulation.Newregulationcanfacilitatethefunctioningoftheshadowbankingsystem,makingitlessvulnerabletopanic.+Thispaperdrawsonanumberofcurrentresearchprojectswithseveralcoauthors.Iacknowledgetheirinf
6、luencesonmythinkingandthankthem:TriViDang,BengtHolmström,andAndrewMetrick.Inparticular,IthankBengtHolmströmforremindingmeoftherelevanceofmyownworkwithGeorgePennacchiwhenhediscussedGorton(2008).ForhelpwithdataIthankCraigFurfine,RichardGrossmanandvariousparticipantsint
7、hecapitalmarkets.ThankstoJamesAitken,DavidAndolfatto,CharlesCalomiris,TriViDang,RichardGrossman,PingHe,AnanthKrishnamurthy,MauryObstfeld,MaureenO’Hara,AshraftRizvi,RichRosen,GabeRosenberg,AmitSeru,andManmohanSinghforcomments.1“ThePanic-ScenesinWallStreetWednesdayMorn
8、ing,”May14,1884,Harper’sWeekly,vol.28,no.1431,p.333;drawnbySchellandHogan.2“TheAmericanpanicof1907…gavetheliedirectlytothosewhoinre