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1、November2013TheGlobalUseofMedicines:Outlookthrough2017IntroductionTotalglobalspendingonmedicineswillexceedonetrillionU.S.dollarsforthefirsttimein2014andreachalmost$1.2trillionin2017.Theroleofmedicinesinimprovinghealthforhundredsofmillionsofpeopleacrosstheglobehas
2、neverbeenmoreimportant.ManycountriesaremovingtowardUniversalHealthCoverage,ensuringaccesstomedicinesandotherelementsofhealthcareforall.Atsuchatime,understandingthemarketforpharmaceuticalsofalltypes–smallandlargemolecules,brandsandgenerics,thosedispensedinretailph
3、armaciesandthoseusedinhospitalorclinicsettings–isessential.Aswepassthefifthyearsincethebeginningoftheworld’smajoreconomicslowdown,macroeconomicindicatorsareimproving,thoughmoreslowlythanpreviouslyforecast.Austeritymeasurestakenbysomegovernments,especiallyinEurope
4、,continuetobeappliedtohealthcarespendingandespeciallymedicines.Inthisyear’sreport,wehavebroughttogethertheglobalexpertiseofourentireIMSHealthteamtoreportonourlatestforecastsforpharmaceuticaluseandrelatedcosts.Duetotheunusuallyhighlevelofuncertaintysurroundingsome
5、ofthestructuralchangesunderwayinkeycountries,wehaveincludednotonlyourbase-caseforecasts,butsomealternativescenariosinthecaseoftheU.S.,EU5,JapanandChina.Whiletheprobabilityofthesealternativescenariosplayingoutmaybelow,webelieveitisusefultoenterthenextfiveyearperio
6、dwiththeseinmind.Wewillcontinuetomonitorthesesituationsregularly.ThestudywasproducedindependentlybytheIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsasapublicservice,withoutindustryorgovernmentfunding.ThecontributionstothisreportofSarahRickwood,MichaelKleinrock,MaríaNúñez-G
7、aviria,ShyamSakhraniandothersatIMSHealtharegratefullyacknowledged.MurrayAitkenExecutiveDirectorFindoutmoreIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformaticsIfyouwanttoreceivemorereportsfromtheIMSInstituteorbeonourIMSInstituteforHealthcareInformatics,11WaterviewBoulevard,Parsip
8、pany,NJ07054,USAmailinglistpleaseclickhereinfo@theimsinstitute.orgwww.theimsinstitute.org©2013IMSHealthIncorporatedanditsaffiliates.Allreproductionrights,quota