美国棉花种植意愿对中储棉棉花储备策略的影响的的研究

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1、第1I页武汉科技大学硕士学位论文AbstractChinaisnotonlythelargestcotton-producingcountryintheworld，butalsothelargestcotton-consumptioncountry．Inrecentyears，alongwiththedependenceoncottonimporting,USbecomesthelargestexporterofcottontoChina．ThereexistsobviouslyimportingandexportinggamerelationshipbetweenChinaandU

2、Sinthecottonmarket．SostudyingAmericanfarmers’cottonplantingwillingnesscouldhelpUStoholdanddealwithpossiblechangesoffuturecottonmarketbetter,andmeanwhilewecouldbeataadvantageouspositioninthegame．ChinaNationalCottonReservesCorporation(CNCRC)bearstheheavyburdenofcoRonmarket’Smacl"o—controlofOurcou

3、ntry．Butbecauseoflotsofreasons，suchasshorttimeoffounding,imperfectmanagement，non-scientificmonitoringmethodsandSOon，theeffectsofCNCRCarenotverygood，andevencausedhugelossesofitself．Basedonthissituation，thisthesiscombinesthestatisticalpredictionmethods，qualitativeforecastingmethodsandsomeothermet

4、hodstoforecasttheAmericanfamers’cottonplantingwillingness．Accordingtotheresultsofprediction,WestudiedresclwepolicyofcottonofonCNCRC．Themaincontentsareasfollows：Firstly,thethesisdescribesthebackgroundandsignificanceofthetopic，summarizesrelevantresearchathomeandabroad，andpointsoutthepoorresearchm

5、ethodsofcottonstoragestrategyandlessattentiononexternalenvironmentandinternationalmarket．Thethesissummarizesthesignificanceandfunctionofcottonreserving,theimpactfactors，qualitativeandquantitativepredictionmethods，combinationforecastingmethodsandsoon．Secondly,wecollected’USDArelatedreportdatafro

6、m1981to2009，adoptedcorrelationanalysis，regressionanalysisandbuiltsortsofmodelstopredictcottonplantingdesire，thuschoosetheoptimalresult．Andthen,weusedcombinationmodelspredictcottonplantingwillingness，includingmeancombinationmodelandintelligentcombinationmodel．Atthesametimeweconstructedqualitativ

7、erules，combinatedwithquantitativeanalysis，toimprovingthepredictionvalues．、Thirdly,basedoncottoncurrentsituationinChina,combinedwiththeimpactofcoRonmarketfluctuationsinAmerica,accordingtotheforecastingmodelsabove，weofferedempirical