Goldman Sachs 估值培训材料（英）

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1、TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.EquityValuation–Understandingwhat’simportantNovember2009HelenJewell,CFA44-20-7552-9454helen.jewell@gs.comIntroduction•Wearegoingtoconsiderthreeofthemostpopularandeffectivevaluationtools•Returnsbasedanalysis•MultipleAnalysis•DCF•Foreachofthemwearegoingtolookat:•How

2、theywork•Whysomeworkbetterthanothers,and….•WhytheyareallsimplydifferentwaysoflookingatthesamethingGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2ReturnsBasedAnalysisKeyIdeaIt’sallaboutthevalue-addedExcessvalueActualReturnCROCIcreatedbyaversuscompanyRequiredReturnWACCVersusExcessvalueActualValueTota

3、lEVattributedbyversusGrossCashthemarketInvestedValueInvestedIftheseareoutofForDirector’sline,thestockisCut,butcanmisvaluedadjustGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4WhyDoesitWork?Youinvest$100minsomeassetsYourrequiredreturnis10%TheactualTheactualTheactualreturnis10%returnis20%returnis5%Th

4、einvestmentTheinvestmentTheinvestmentshouldbeworthshouldbeworthshouldbeworth$100m$200m$50mEVCROCIEVCROCIEVCROCIGCIWACCGCIWACCGCIWACCValueCreatingValueDestroyingGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch5CalculatingCROCIOperatingcashflowNon-cashitemsandthecompany’s(ignoringWorkingfinancialstruct

5、urehavenoimpact,Capital)plusafter-taxmakingcomparisonsmoremeaningfulinterestandleaseexpenseInterestandLeasex(1–TaxRate)CROCI=Debt-AdjustedCashFlowGrossCashInvestedPre-depreciationandwriteoffvalueoftangibleandintangibleassetsGrossAssetsplusOperatingDepreciationpoliciesdonotimpactthisworkin

6、gcapitalpluscapitalisedfigureleasesplusinvestmentsGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch6Companiesarecomparedwiththesector1:1line2.0OvervaluedLinerepresentingaveragevaluationforthe1.5sectorICGQuestion:Whyarethesedifferent?/1.0VEDCscore>1DCscore<10.5Undervalued0.00.51.01.52.02.5CROCI/WACCQua

7、rtile4Quartile3Quartile2Quartile1GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch7Whyarethesedifferent?•Capex•Valuableassetswhicharenotrevalued(eg.Intangibles)•Growth…..GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch8Whataboutgrowth?•Absolutegrowthisnotthedriverofvalue•Why?•Growthisn’talw