energy_outlook_2035_booklet(bp世界能源展望2035)

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1、BPEnergyOutlook2035February2015bp.com/energyoutlook#BPstats©BPp.l.c.2015DisclaimerThispresentationcontainsforward-lookingstatements,particularlythoseregardingglobaleconomicgrowth,populationgrowth,energyconsumption,policysupportforrenewableenergiesandsourcesofenergysupply.Forward-loo

2、kingstatementsinvolverisksanduncertaintiesbecausetheyrelatetoevents,anddependoncircumstances,thatwillormayoccurinthefuture.Actualoutcomesmaydifferdependingonavarietyoffactors,includingproductsupply,demandandpricing;politicalstability;generaleconomicconditions;legalandregulatorydevel

3、opments;availabilityofnewtechnologies;naturaldisastersandadverseweatherconditions;warsandactsofterrorismorsabotage;andotherfactorsdiscussedelsewhereinthispresentation.BPdisclaimsanyobligationtoupdatethispresentation.NeitherBPp.l.c.noranyofitssubsidiariesacceptliabilityforanyinaccura

4、ciesoromissionsorforanydirect,indirect,special,consequentialorotherlossesordamagesofwhatsoeverkindinconnectiontothispresentationoranyinformationcontainedinit.EnergyOutlook20352©BPp.l.c.2015ContentsPageIntroduction4Globalenergytrends7Liquidfuels29Naturalgas49Coalandnon-fossilfuels63K

5、eyuncertainties77Appendix93EnergyOutlook20353©BPp.l.c.2015Welcometothe2015editionofBP’sEnergyOutlook.Atatimewhenourindustryisfocusedontherapidresponsetoadramaticfallinoilprices,itisinstructivetolookateventsfromalongertermperspective.Today’sturbulenceisareturntobusiness-as-usual.Cont

6、inuouschangeisthenorminourindustry.Theenergymixchanges.Thebalanceofdemandshifts.Newsourcesofenergyemerge,suchasshalegas,tightoil,ultra-deepwateroilorrenewables.Economiesexpandandcontract.Energyproductionandconsumptionareaffectedbydisruptions,fromwarstoextremeweather.Newpoliciesarecr

7、eatedtoaddressclimatechangeorbolsterenergysecurity.Energycompaniesneedtoadapt–asBPisdoingasIwrite;andtobuildstrategicallyforthelongertermwenotonlyneedtocontrolcapitalandcosts,buttosetacleardirection.ThisOutlookisthereforevaluableingivingusaninsightintothemostlikelyshapeofthefutureen

8、ergylandscapeandsom