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1、PollutionHavens:aSpatialPanelVARApproachJosé-AntonioMonteiroFirstDraft:July2009WorkinProgress.VeryPreliminaryAbstractInsteadofdistinguishingbetweenenvironmentalstringency,in‡owsofFDIandopen-nessasendogenousandexogenousvariables,thispaperconsidersatrivariatespatialpanelvectorau
2、toregression(SpVAR)modelforalargenumberofhostcountriesduringtheperiod1981to2000.UnliketraditionalpanelVAR,SpVARallowstoexplicitlyaccountforspatialcross-sectiondependenceinthedata.Thisisparticularlyimportantfortwointerrelatedreasons.First,environmentalpolicies,multilateralFDIdec
3、isionsaswellascapitalandtradeagreementshavebeenshowntobespatiallycorrelated.Second,takingintoaccountspatialdependenceandspilloverscanpotentiallymitigatethevariableomissionsbias.Verypreliminaryresults…ndevidenceofapollutionhavene¤ectandtheexistenceofabidirectionalcausalitybetwee
4、nFDIandenvironmentalstringency.Inaddition,spatialspilloversseemtoplayakeyroleinthelinkagebetweenFDI,openessandenvironmentalregulation.Keywords:FDI,EnvironmentalStringency,PanelUnitRootTests,PanelVAR,SpatialEconometrics.JELclassi…cation:F18,F23,Q56,C31,C33UniversityofNeuchatel,
5、jose-antonio.monteiro@unine.ch11IntroductionThereisanongoingdebateabouttheenvironmentalimpactofmultinationalsonhostcoun-tries,inparticulardevelopingeconomies.Ontheonehand,the“pollutionhaven”hypothesisstatesthattrade/capitalliberalizationwillleadpollution-intensiveindustriestore
6、locatetocountrieswithlessstringentenvironmentalpolicies.CompetitiontoattractFDIamongeconomiesmightthenleadtoareductionorstatusquoinenvironmentalstandards.Ontheotherhand,accordingtothe“pollutionhalo”hypothesis,relocatingindustriescanimproveenvironmentalperformanceinthecountriesw
7、ithlaxerenvironmentalstandardsthroughtheirnewandcleanertechnology.Empiricalstudiesdesignedtotestthesehypotheseshavesofarshownlittleandcon‡ictingevidence.Oneofthecrucialproblemsinherentinexistingstud-iesisthat,todate,nospeci…ccausalityanalysisofthemutualrelationshipbetweenFDI,en
8、vironmentalpolicyandcapital/tradeopennesshasbeenconduc
