feeding the dragon november trade data confirming a strong

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1、CommoditiesResearch21December2012FeedingtheDragonNovembertradedata:confirmingastrong2012recoveryKevinNorrish+44(0)2077730369kevin.norrish@barclays.comGayleBerry+44(0)2031341596gayle.berry@barclays.comSijinCheng+6563086320sijin.cheng@barclays.comSukiCooper+12125267896suki.cooper@bar

2、clays.comDespitetheeconomygrowingatitsweakestpacefor13years,2012willgodownasMiswinMaheshoneofthestrongesteverforChina’scommodityimports.2011sawamixedpicture+44(0)2077734291withimportsofkeycommoditieslikecopperandsoybeansfallingandcoalimportmiswin.mahesh@barclays.comgrowthslowingsha

3、rply.Incontrast,withjustonemonthofdatatogo,Chinaisontracktoregisterstronggrowthrightacrossthecommoditiessectorthisyear.NicholasSnowdon+12125267279Someofthestrongestimportgrowthhasbeeninagriculture.Importsofkeynicholas.snowdon@barclays.comcommoditieslikecorn,cottonandsoybeansareup31

4、8%,79%and11%y/y,respectively.MostofthestrengthinagriculturalcommoditiesimportsthisyearreflectsSudakshinaUnnikrishnanChina’sstructuralinabilitytomatchitsdemandgrowth.Weexpectfurthergrowthin+44(0)2077733797soybeanimportsnextyear,thoughcornbuyingislikelytobeverypricesensitiveandsudaks

5、hina.unnikrishnan@barclays.comimportgrowthislikelytobemuchbelowthisyear’space.Cottonimportshavewww.barclays.comcontributedtoabigbuildindomesticstocksandarelikelytobemuchweakerin2013.Importsofallprimarymetalsexceptnickelalsoexpandedfastthisyear,whilstironoreimportgrowthreached8%y/y.

6、However,muchmoreofthisgrowthhascontributedtoincreasesindomesticstocks,asmuchofthetradehasbeendrivenbyfinancingactivitiesandarbitrageplaysratherthanunderlyingdemand.Rawmaterialsimportsformostbasemetalshavealsobeenstrong,helpingtoboostlocalproductionandaddtolocalsurpluses.Significant

7、ly,importsofmostbasemetalsfellsharplyinNovemberandwethinkthatbasemetalsimportsarelikelytostayweakearlyin2013,withthepossibleexceptionofzincwherefinancingdemandishigh.Inenergymarketscrudeoilimportgrowthsofarthisyearisrunningalittleaheadof2011(7%vs.6%y/y)andweexpectgrowthinearly2013t

8、oremainsteadyatclosetothes