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1、巴菲特的投资过程：简单，但不容易（夕注：这位朋友对巴菲特的投资方法总结得完整而精炼）TheessenceofBuffett’sinvestmentprocessisputtingoutcashaftercarefulconsiderationofthefactswiththeexpectationofareasonable(orbetteryet,unreasonable)return.Heseesthisasfundamentallydifferentfromspeculationwhereth
2、eemphasisisnotonwhataninvestmentisintrinsicallyworthbutonwhatthenextpersonwillpayforit.Buffettdoesnotthinkthatthereisanythingwrongwithspeculatingperse;it’ssimplyagamehechoosesnottoplay.AtthecenterofBuffett’sinvestmentprocessistheabilitytovalueanasset.
3、Todothisrequiresthatyouansweronlythreequestions:巴菲特投资过程的核心是评估资产的能力。如此做法只要求你回答三个问题：1.Howcertainareyouthatyourinvestmentwillproducecash?你的投资会产生现金的确定性有多大？2.wmuchcashwillitproduceandwhenwillitbepaid?会产生多少现金，何时会得到偿付？3.Whatistheriskfreeinterestrate?Buffettu
4、sestheyieldonlong-termtreasurybondsfortheriskfreeinterestrate.无风险利率是多少？巴菲特用长期国债的收益率当作无风险利率。Buffettteachesthatthisbasicframeworkisimmutableandcanbeusedtovalueanytypeofassetfarms,oilroyalties,stocks,bonds,lotteryticketsandmanufacturingplants.Aninvestorc
5、anusethisframeworktoevaluateallavailableassetsandtheninvestintheonethatisthecheapest,thatis,theonethatthatoffersthemostvalueforthedollarsinvested.巴菲特教导说，这个基本框架是永恒的，可以用于各类资产——农庄、oilroyalties、股票、债券、彩票和工厂。投资者可以框架来评价所有的资产资产，然后投资于其中最便宜的一个。Foraninvestmentgr
6、adebond,makingthiscalculationofvalueiseasy,becausethebondgeneratesafixedcouponthatiscontractuallyboundtobepaidonafixdeschedule.However,whenvaluingabusiness,itistheinvestor’sjobtoestimatetheamountandtimingofcashthatthebusinesswillproduce.Thisisinherent
7、lyimpreciseprocess,yetitcanbeveryuseful.作为一种风险债券（gradebond）投资，作这样的计算是容易的，因为债券产生固定利息，可以定期得到回报。然而，估价一个企业，投资者却要自己去估算企业能够产生的现金的数量和时间。这本身是一个不很精确的过程，但却非常有用。Evenifaninvestorcanonlycomeupwitharangeofvaluesforaprospectiveinvestment,sucharangeofvaluesmayallowth
8、einvestortomakeaprofitableinvestmentiftheinvestmentcanbepurchasedatapricebelowthosevalues.Forexample,ifyourbestappraisalofarealestateinvestmentwasveryimprecise,forexample,thatthepropertywasworthbetween$1millionand$2million,thatestimatewouldsti
