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1、JournalofWaterResourcesResearch水资源研究,2017,6(2),91-102PublishedOnlineApril2017inHans.http://www.hanspub.org/journal/jwrrhttps://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2017.62013ForecastingofFlash-Flood-ProducingPrecipitationbyCouplingMultipleSourcesofInformationMingXiong1,Wenfa
2、Yang1,JunLi2,BeipingZhou3,LiZi11BureauofHydrology,ChangjiangWaterResourcesCommission,WuhanHubei2WuhanInstituteofStormrainResearch,ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,WuhanHubei3NanjingUniversityofInformationEngineering,NanjingJiangsuthththReceived:Mar.20,2017;ac
3、cepted:Apr.11,2017;published:Apr.14,2017AbstractTheprecipitationforecastsfromradarandsatellitecloudpictures(withaleadtimeof0-2h),fromupperairandgroundsurfaceatmosphericsounding(withaleadtimeof0-24h)andfromnumericalforecastingmode(withaleadtimeof0-72h)havediffe
4、rentforecasteffectindifferentforecastpe-riods.Consideringtheshortleadtimeandlowaccuracyforecastforearlywarningofmountaintor-rents,studyonthenumericalforecastingmodel,themodel’soptimizedcombinationofparameters,dataassimilation,correctingtheerrorsonforecastedrai
5、nfallinflash-floodaffectedregionandanop-timizedcalculatingmethodbasedonbigdataforradarmonitoringprecipitation.LinxiangCityofHu-nanProvincewasselectedasexperimentalareaandtheresultsshowthattheWRFnumericalforecastismoresuitablefortheforecastofdisastersincludingm
6、ountaintorrents.Amongthem,WSM6cloudmicrophysicalprocess,Grell-DevenyiensembleconvectiveparameterizationschemeandYSUboun-darylayerparameterconfigurationschemecangreatlysimulatetheprocessofmountaintorrentsandstormcausingaflood,precipitationdeviationcorrectionmet
7、hodbasedonfrequency(orarea)matchcanconsiderablyimprovethesystematicdeviationintherainfallandscopeofrainareainthepreci-pitationforecast,thebigdataanalysismethodusedinradarrainfallforecastcanremarkablyimprovetheaccuracy.Aforecastingdisastrousflashfloodsmethodhas
8、beenproposedbycouplingupperairandgroundsurfaceatmosphericsounding,the0-72hshort-termquantitativeprecipitationforecasts(QPF)fromnumericalforecastingmodeandthe0-2hnowcastQPFbasedonra
