应用统计案例分析.doc

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1、CaseProblemFORECASTINGLOSTSALESTheCarlsonDepartmentStoresufferedheavydamagewhenahurricanestruckonAugust31,1996.Thestorewasclosedfor4months(September1996throughDecember1996),andCarlsonisnowinvolvedinadisputewithitsinsurancecompanyconcerningtheamountoflostsa

2、lesduringthetimethestorewasclosed.Twokeyissuesmustberesolved:(1)theamountofsalesCarlsonwouldhavemadeifthehurricanehadnotstruck;and(2)whetherCarlsonentitledtoanycompensationforexcesssalesfromincreasedbusinessactivityafterthestorm.Morethan$8billioninfederald

3、isasterreliefandinsurancemoneycameintothecounty,resultinginincreasedsalesatdepartmentstoresandnumerousotherbusinesses.Table1showsthesalesdataforthe48monthsprecedingthestorm.TheU.S.DepartmentofCommercealsohaspublishedtotalsalesforthe48monthsprecedingthestor

4、mforalldepartmentstoresinthecounty,aswellasthetotalsalesinthecountyfor4monthstheCarlsonDepartmentStorewasclosed.Table2showsthesedata.ManagementhasaskedyoutoanalyzethesedataanddevelopestimatesofthelostsalesattheCarlsonDepartmentStoreforthemonthsofSeptembert

5、hroughDecember1996.Managementalsohasaskedyoutodeterminewhetheracasecanbemadeforexcessstorm-relatedsalesduringthesameperiod.Ifsuchacasecanbemade,Carlsonisentitledtocompensationforexcesssalesitwouldhaveearnedinadditiontoordinarysales.Table1SALESFORCARLSONDEP

6、ARTMENTSTORE,SEPTEMBER1992THROUGHAUGUST1996Month19921993199419951996Jan.Feb.Mae.Apr.May.June.July.Aug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Des.1.711.902.744.201.451.802.031.992.322.202.132.431.902.132.564.162.311.982.022.232.392.142.272.212.892.292.834.042.311.992.422.452.572.422

7、.402.502.092.542.974.352.562.282.692.482.732.372.312.23Table2DEPARTMENTSTORESALESFORTHECOUNTY,SEPTEMBER1992THROUGHAUGUST1996Month19921993199419951996Jan.Feb.Mae.Apr.May.46.848.060.057.661.846.848.659.458.260.643.845.657.653.456.448.051.657.658.260.0June.Ju

8、ly.Aug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Des.55.856.471.4117.658.256.463.057.653.471.4114.055.251.058.849.854.665.4102.052.854.060.647.454.667.8100.257.057.661.869.075.085.2121.8ManagerialReportPrepareareportforthemanagementofCar