应用统计案例分析

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1、CaseProblemFORECASTINGLOSTSALESTheCarlsonDepartmentStoresufferedheavydamagewhenahurricanestruckonAugust31,1996.Thestorewasclosedfor4months(September1996throughDecember1996),andCarlsonisnowinvolvedinadisputewithitsinsurancecompanyconcerningtheamountoflostsalesduringthetimethestorewasclosed.Twokeyis

2、suesmustberesolved:(l)theamountofsalesCarlsonwouldhavemadeifthehurricanehadnotstruck;and(2)whetherCarlsonentitledtoanycompensationforexcesssalesfromincreasedbusinessactivityafterthestorm.Morethan$8billioninfederaldisasterreliefandinsurancemoneycameintothecounty,resultinginincreasedsalesatdepartmen

3、tstoresandnumerousotherbusinesses・Table1showsthesalesdataforthe48monthsprecedingthestorm.TheU.S.DepartmentofCommercealsohaspublishedtotalsalesforthe48monthsprecedingthestormforalldepartmentstoresinthecounty,aswellasthetotalsalesinthecountyfor4monthstheCarlsonDepartmentStorewasclosed・Table2showsthe

4、sedata.ManagementhasaskedyoutoanalyzethesedataanddevelopestimatesofthelostsalesattheCarlsonDepartmentStoreforthemonthsofSeptemberthroughDecember1996.Managementalsohasaskedyoutodeterminewhetheracasecanbemadeforexcessstorm-relatedsalesduringthesameperiod・Ifsuchacasecanbemade,Carlsonisentitledtocompe

5、nsationforexcesssalesitwouldhaveearnedinadditiontoordinarysales.Table1SALESFORCARLSONDEPARTMENTSTORE,SEPTEMBER1992THROUGHAUGUST1996Month19921993199419951996Jan.1.452.312.312.56Feb.1.801.981.992.28Mae.2.032.022.422.69Apr.1.992.232.452.48May.2.322.392.572.73June.2.202」42.422.37July.2」32.272.402.31Au

6、g・2.432.212.502.23Sept.1.711.902.892.09Oct.1.902.132.292.54Nov.2.742.562.832.97Des.4.204」64.044.35Table2DEPARTMENTSTORESALESFORTHECOUNTY,SEPTEMBER1992THROUGHAUGUST1996Month19921993199419951996Jan.46.846.843.848.0Feb.4&04&645.651.6Mae.60.059.457.657.6Ap匚57.65&253.45&2May.61.860.656.460.0June.58.255

7、.252.857.0July.56.451.054.057.6Aug・63.058.860.661.8Sept.55.857.649.847.469.0Oct.56.453.454.654.675.0Nov.71.471.465.467.885.2Des.117.6114.0102.0100.2121.8ManagerialReportPrepareareportforthemanagementofCarlsonDepa