资源描述：
《Understanding Asset Values 》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、AFunnyThingHappenedontheWaytotheDataBankDeanCroushoreandTomStarkUnderstandingAssetValues:StockPrices,ExchangeRates,Andthe“PesoProblem”KeithSillSometimes,thepresentdependsonthefuture:wecanthinkof,whatpeopleexpectwillhap-peoplecarryumbrellaswhenthereisafore-penaffectshowtheybehavetoday.Exchan
2、gecastforstormyweather;footballteamsintheratesandpricesofassetssuchasstocksandleadplayzonedefenselateinthegame,sincebondsdependnotonlyonthemostlikelyfuturetheyexpecttheiropponentstopass;advance-outcomesbutalsoonpossiblebutlesslikelypurchaseairfaresarehigherforholiday-traveloutcomes.Sometime
3、sapossibleoutcomecanbetimes,whenpassengertrafficisexpectedtobesodifferentfromtoday’sconditionsthatassetheavy.Ineachofthesecases,andmanyothersprices,whichincorporatesuchextremepossi-bilities,makefinancialmarketslookflawed,eveniftheyarenot.Economistscallsuchacondition*KeithSillisasenioreconom
4、istintheResearchDe-a“pesoproblem.”partmentofthePhiladelphiaFed.Nooneknowsthepreciseoriginoftheterm3BUSINESSREVIEWSEPTEMBER/OCTOBER2000pesoproblem,butitisoftenattributedtoNobelprobabilitiesofbad(orgood!)thingshappen-laureateMiltonFriedmanincommentshemadeing,model-basedforecastscanproveinaccu
5、rateabouttheMexicanpesomarketoftheearlyandthepolicyadvicethatrestsonthemcansuf-1970s.Atthattime,theexchangeratebetweenfer.theU.S.dollarandMexicanpesowasfixed,asithadbeensince1954.Atthesametime,theinter-PESOPROBLEMS,ECONOMICestrateonMexicanbankdepositsexceededtheFORECASTS,ANDEXPECTATIONSinte
6、restrateoncomparableU.S.bankdeposits.Expectationsareoftenanimportantingredi-Thissituationmightseemlikeaflawinthefi-entinoureverydayactionsanddecision-mak-nancialmarkets,sinceinvestorscouldborrowing.Forexample,grocerystoresbecomemoreatthelowinterestrateintheUnitedStates,con-crowdedthanusualw
7、hentheweatherforecastvertdollarsintopesos,depositthemoneyincallsforaseveresnowstorm.FirmsmaymakeMexicoandearnahigherinterestrate,thencon-additionalinvestmentsinplantandequipmentverttheproceedsbackintodollarsatthesametodayinordertomeetprojectionsofstrongf
