ibm 项目管理系列培训讲义9

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1、Unit09–EstimatingOctober2004

2、ProjectManagement

3、WilhelmF.Neuhäuser©IBMCorporation2003ProjectManagementAgendaUnit9:Estimating
Objectives
Reasonsforestimating
Levelsofestimating
Estimatemethodologies-accordingtoPMI
Effort,duration,andelapsedtime
Estimatingtoolselectionissues
KeyMessages-Unit9

4、2Unit09

5、Estimating©IBMCorporation2003ProjectManagementObjectivesAttheendofthismodule,youwillbeableto-
Usefundamentalestimatingprocessestodetermineprojectexpensesandduration
Applyvariousmethodologiesinprojectestimating
Usedifferentestimatingtoolsinprojectplanning
Incorporateriskfactorsintop

6、rojectestimates3Unit09

7、Estimating©IBMCorporation2003ProjectManagementDefinitionsCostestimating:
EstimatingthecostsoftheresourcesneededtocompleteactivitiesCostbudgeting:
Allocatingthecostestimatestoindividualprojectcomponentssotheycanbemeasuredormanaged4Unit09

8、Estimating©IBMCorporation2003P

9、rojectManagementWhatisanEstimate?Estimatingis–
Anassessmentofthelikelyquantitativeresult
Usuallyappliedtoprojectcostfactorsandtotheschedule
Shouldincludesomeindicationofaccuracy(e.g.,+/-xpercent)
Usuallyusedwithamodifier(e.g.,preliminary,conceptual,feasibility)Estimatingisnot-
Anaccountstr

10、ategy
Pricing
Investmentmarketing
Client/projectsponsorsatisfaction
Softwareortools
Findingthefastestway5Unit09

11、Estimating©IBMCorporation2003ProjectManagementReasonsforEstimating
Toevaluateaproject'sestimatedexpenses
Toprovideabasisfortrackingandmanagingprojectexpendituresusingactivity-bas

12、edcostingorothermethods
Toestablishamanagerialbaselineagainstwhichtomeasureactualexpenditures
Toprovidetheprojectmanagerwithatoolforevaluatingroutineprojectdecisions
Toprovidefact-basedinformationinsupportoftheinvestmentanalysisofthefinancialassessmentenablingprocess6Unit09

13、Estimating©IBMC

14、orporation2003ProjectManagementLevelsofEstimatingTop-down:
Ahigh-levelestimateofprojectsortheirsummarytasksbasedoncostscaling,analogy,orexperienceBottom-up:
Averydetailedestimateofworktobeconductedfromtheworkpackageup,aggregatedtoreflecttotalprojectcosts-akeyc