能源消费总量、强度与环境污染——基于空间面板计量模型

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1、目录一、我国能源消费总量的现状分析·····························································22二、我国能源消费强度现状分析································································25三、二氧化硫排放空间分布现状································································27第三节空间权重矩阵的确定·············································

2、·············28第四节能源消费总量、强度与环境污染的探索性空间数据分析············29一、能源总量、强度与环境污染的空间自相关检验········································29二、能源消费总量、强度和环境污染的空间关联局域指标LISA分析·················35第五节能源消费总量、强度对环境污染影响的空间计量分析···············38一、模型的设定与数据处理······································································38

3、二、模型检验························································································38三、模型估计及结果分析·········································································40第五章结论与建议·······················································42一、结论··············································

4、·············································42二、建议···························································································43三、不足与展望·····················································································44参考文献·······················································

5、···············45附录············································································48附录:模型检验与估计的MATLAB程序············································48致谢············································································50在读期间完成的研究成果············································

6、·····51VI第一章绪论第一章绪论第一节选题背景及研究意义一、选题背景能源是一切生物赖以生存的物质基础。能源与经济之间有着不可分割的重要关系。然而，经济的迅猛发展导致对能源过度的需求，自20世纪80年代中期以后，能源匮乏已经成为一个世界性问题。十八大报告提出，要控制好能源的消费总量，大力发展新能源、可再生能源。能源短缺已成为阻碍我国经济持续发展的重要元素。另一方面中国长期以来都是粗放式的发展模式，虽然带动经济的增长，但是由于能源利用率低，带来严重的环境污染问题。近些年来我国的环境问题越来越突出。在2014年的春节，中国的雾霾比2013年更加严重，几乎要埋葬人类，创下了几十年来雾霾天气

7、之最，大范围的PM2.5超标使整个中国几乎全部笼罩在雾霾里，人类的生存环境受到前所未有的威胁，环境污染问题顿时成为人们热议的话题。国家能源总局在“十二五”规划能源消费总量和强度实施双控，控制好能源的消费总量，同时提高能源效率。改革开放以来，我国GDP呈现指数增长态势。伴随着经济持续高速增长，我国能源消费以每年5.77%的速度增加，目前我国已成为世界第一大能源消费国，令国人担忧。目前我国正处于工业化和城市化的重要时期，能源需求强劲增长