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1、AbstractInrecentyears,thesupplychaindisruptionsoccurredfrequently,itsuniquesuddenandhighdamagecharacteristicshasproducegreatinfluencestoboththenodeenterpriseofsupplychainandthesociety,evenmore,iftherecanfindsomemethodwhichcouldidentifiedthesignsofansupplychaindisruptionbeforeitoccurs,then
2、itcouldavoidittosomeextent,sobaseonthisidea,thispaperresearchthesupplychaindisruptionsearlywarningmechanism.Firstly,thispapercollectsomerelatedconceptsandtheoriesabouttheearlywarningofsupplychaindisruptionsrisks,includingsupplychainrisks、supplychaindisruptions,etc,thecorecontentispointtoa
3、nalysisthedifferenceandrelationshipamongsupplychainrisks,supplychaindisruptionsandsupplychaincrisis,andthendefinetherelationshipbetweensupplychainrisksandsupplychaindisruptionrisks;thenmakestatisticalanalysistothesupplychaindisruptionscasesthatoccurredinthereallife,andbasedonthis,toclassi
4、fythesupplychaindisruptionsinto8types,includingsystemtype,managementtype,supplytype,demandtype,logisticstype,informationtype,financialtype,environmenttype,andanalysiseachtype’sriskidentification,finally,takeprincipleofcontrolcharttoconstructaearlywarningevaluationmodelforthesupplychaindis
5、ruptionsrisks,using3σprincipletoconfirmthethresholdoftheriskearlywarningindexandconstructtheideaofusingfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodtomakesupplychaindisruptionriskearlywarningevaluation,thenthroughtheapplicationofactualcasetoverifythefeasibilityoftheevaluationmethod.Thecoreresearchof
6、thispaperistheearlywarningevaluationmechanismofsupplychaindisruptionsrisks,itisonepartoftheearlywarningmechanisms,theapplicationoftheearlywarningevaluationmechanismistoevaluatethestateofanobject,anddeterminewhetheritarrivedthewarninglimitornot,soitissignificanttotookthisresearch.Keywords：
7、supplychaindisruptions，fuzzycomprehensiveevaluation，controlchart，threshold，riskearlywarningevaluationII目录第一章绪论............................................................................................................................11.1选题背景及研究意义...................
