农业现代化对粮食产量影响的分析

《农业现代化对粮食产量影响的分析》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、农业现代化对粮食产量影响的分析农业现代化对粮食产量影响的分析引言：我国是一个传统的农业大国，地域广阔，人口众多。因此，对粮食问题的研究显得尤为重要。现代农业的基本特点是农业劳动生产率的极大提高，为了进一步研究农业机械总动力和农用施用量对我国农村的粮食总产量的影响程度，我们对相关数据进行简单的计量经济学分析。以下是1980年—1999年我国某地区粮食总产量，农业机械总动力和农用化肥施用量的数据统计表。年份粮食总产量（万吨）Y农业机械总动力（万千瓦）X1农用化肥施用量（万吨）X2198032056147461269.419813250215680.11334.9198

2、23545016614.21513.419833872818021.91659.819844073119497.21739.819853791120912.51775.8198639151229501930.6198740473248361999.3198839408265752141.5198940755280672357.119904462428707.72590.319914352929388.62805.119924426630308.42930.219934564931816.63151.819944451033802.53318.21995466623

3、6118.13593.919965045438547.23828.119974941742015.63980.819985123045207.74083.719995083948996.14124.3（资料三农数据库）根据以上数据建立模型如下：Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+uY--粮食总产量X1--农业机械总动力X2--农用化肥施用量模型估计由OLS法得：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:05/10/04Time:20:49Sample:19801999Includedobservations:20Variable

4、CoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C27360.191151.01323.770540.0000X10.0936260.1866560.5015970.6224X24.7481461.9140632.4806640.0239R-squared0.929201Meandependentvar42417.25AdjustedR-squared0.920872S.D.dependentvar5720.597S.E.ofregression1609.189Akaikeinfocriterion17.74233Sumsquaredres

5、id44021326Sche:20:49Sample:19801999Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C26739.861274.25020.984780.0000X10.5473870.04214812.987300.0000R-squared0.903573Meandependentvar42417.25AdjustedR-squared0.898216S.D.dependentvar5720.597S.E.ofregression1825.076Akaike

6、infocriterion17.95127Sumsquaredresid59956248Sche:20:50Sample:19801999Includedobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.C27589.401034.22126.676520.0000X25.6890140.37307415.249040.0000R-squared0.928153Meandependentvar42417.25AdjustedR-squared0.924162S.D.dependentvar5720

7、.597S.E.ofregression1575.381Akaikeinfocriterio350.2200R-squared0.281187Meandependentvar2233642.AdjustedR-squared0.196621S.D.dependentvar3096482.S.E.ofregression2775421.Akaikeinfocriterion32.64798Sumsquaredresid1.31E+14Sche:21:08Sample(adjusted):19811999Includedobservations:19afteradju

8、sting