运营管理第14版蔡斯ipptchap018

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1、ForeCASTINGChapterEighteenCopyright©2014byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.McGraw-Hill/IrwinLearningObjectivesLO18–1:Understandhowforecastingisessentialtosupplychainplanning.LO18–2:Evaluatedemandusingquantitativeforecastingmodels.LO18–3:Applyqualitativetechniquestoforecastdeman

2、d.LO18–4:Applycollaborativetechniquestoforecastdemand.18-2TheRoleofForecastingForecastingisavitalfunctionandaffectseverysignificantmanagementdecision.Financeandaccountinguseforecastsasthebasisforbudgetingandcostcontrol.Marketingreliesonforecaststomakekeydecisionssuchasnewproductplanningandp

3、ersonnelcompensation.Productionusesforecaststoselectsuppliers;determinecapacityrequirements;anddrivedecisionsaboutpurchasing,staffing,andinventory.Differentrolesrequiredifferentforecastingapproaches.Decisionsaboutoveralldirectionsrequirestrategicforecasts.Tacticalforecastsareusedtoguideday-

4、to-daydecisions.18-3ForecastingandDecouplingPoint18-4Decouplingpoint:Pointatwhichinventoryisstored,whichallowsSCtooperateindependentlyThechoiceofthedecouplingpointinaSCisstrategic.Forecastinghelpsdeterminethelevelofinventoryneededatthedecouplingpoints.Thedecisionwillbeaffectedbytheerrorprod

5、ucedintheforecastandthetypeofproduct(easilyinventoriedoreasilyperishable).TypesofForecastingTherearefourbasictypesofforecasts.QualitativeTimeseriesanalysis(primaryfocusofthischapter)CausalrelationshipsSimulationTimeseriesanalysisisbasedontheideathatdatarelatingtopastdemandcanbeusedtopredict

6、futuredemand.18-5ComponentsofDemandAveragedemandforaperiodoftimeTrendSeasonalelementCyclicalelementsRandomvariationAutocorrelationExcel:ComponentsofDemand18-6TrendsIdentificationoftrendlinesisacommonstartingpointwhendevelopingaforecast.Commontrendtypesincludelinear,S-curve,asymptotic,andexp

7、onential.18-7TimeSeriesAnalysisUsingthepasttopredictthefutureShortterm–forecastinglessthan3monthsUsedmainlyfortacticaldecisionsMediumterm–forecasting3monthsto2yearsUsedtodevelopastrategythatwillbeimplementedoverthenext6to18months(e.g.,meetingdemand)Longt