麦格理-中国-金融业-中国金融科技：主宰消费者金融

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1、GREATERCHINAChinafintechPoisedtodominateconsumerfinanceChina’sfintechlendingsectorisbooming.Whilsttherewillinevitablybesetbacksfromtighterregulationsandmanyplayerswillfail,weareconvincedthatonlineofferingsareaformidablethreattobanks,inthevastlyunderpen

2、etratedconsumerfinancesegment.WeinitiatecoverageofthefintechlendingsectorwithapositiveviewandrecommendinvestorsbuyYirendaiandQudian.Ourtargetpriceimpliesaone-yearTSRof43%onYRDand32%onQD.Consumercreditsectorisunder-servedSummaryofrecommendationsHousehol

3、dleverageinChinaislowbecauseindividualsaversandborrowersarePriceMktcapADTPTStock(US$)(US$bn)(US$m)Rec(US$)TSRunder-servedbybanks.Thisispartlyduetoalackofconsumercreditrecords.YRDUS41.92.527OP6043%Withrisingadoptionofmobileinternet,fintechlendersarefill

4、ingthatgapwithQDUS27.28.4212OP3632%innovativesolutionsinvolvingshort-termcashadvancesandinstalmentloans.Note:Stockpricesasof13November2017.Source:MacquarieResearch,November2017Weprojectfintechloanswillregistera37%CAGRoverthenext5years.Whodoyouplantobor

5、rowfrom?BorroweracquisitionandretentionarekeysuccessfactorsFintechlendingcompaniesmakemoneybychargingfacilitationfeestoborrowersovertheirplatforms.However,despitelow-costonlinemodels,None16%Notcustomeracquisitioncostsarerisingandremainasignificanthurdl

6、e.Sounddecided31%customerretentionandrepeatbusinessisthereforevitaltoprofitability.BankLoansFundingstructureisacriticaldeterminant26%FintechLendingP2Premainsthepredominantfundingsource.Whilstweconsiderthismore27%expensiveandpronetomoreregulation,wethin

7、kstrongbrandslikeYirendaicanbenefitfromastickiercustomerrelationships.Bycontrast,non-P2Plenders,Source:TencentCDC,MacquarieResearch,Novemberespeciallywithproperlicences,aretappingintocheaperfundingsourcesfrom2017banks,trustsandeventhesecuritizationmark

8、et.Competitivelandscape:FintechlendingCreditriskmanagementyettobeprovenfocusingonmassmarketGivenlimitedpubliccreditrecords,fintechlendingplatformshaveutilisedLendersProductsunconventionaldatasourcessuchassocialmediaandonlineshoppingreco