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1、GLOBALTheGlobalMacroOutlookBeyondthecycleThecoldbath:Withthehigh-frequencymanufacturingsectordatarollingover,page2,webelieveitistimetofocusbackontwounderlyingtrends:weaklabourforcegrowthintheleadingeconomiesandfinancialrepressionfordecades.Weforecastmoderatetrendgrow
2、thandlowrealandnominalbondyieldsglobally.Thecyclerolls:weforecast2018and2019globalrealGDPgrowth(2.7%and2.6%respectively)toslowversus2017(2.9%).Labourforcegrowth:TheUSisbetterpositionedthanEurope,JapanandevenChina.Nonetheless,evenassuminganaggressivereboundinthecorewo
3、rkingage(25-54yearold)participationrate,just~120,000jobspermonthwillbeKeyforecasts,changesthismonthnecessarytokeepUSunemploymentstablein2017.Thispacedeceleratesto1)TablesforrealGDPgrowth,CPI,interestjust~45,000Kjobspermonthin2020.Theagingdemographicprofilemeansrates,
4、currenciesandcommoditypricesunderlyingUSlabourforcegrowthislikelytobejust~0.4%long-term.areonpages9-11.OnlineaccesstoourFortheUS,theabovecombinedwithrecenttrendsinproductivitygrowthofglobalmacroforecastsisavailableon~1.0%pa,thatdemographicforcessuggestwillcontinue,le
5、adstoourestimaterequest.forUSrealpotentialoutputgrowthofjust1.4%pa.2)Thecyclerolls:weforecast2018and2019globalrealGDPgrowth(2.7%and2.6%Eurozone:privatenonfinancialcreditgrowthvsnominalGDPgrowthrespectively)toslowversus2017(2.9%)14(YoY%)Privatenonfinancialcredit3)2018
6、4Qon4QforecastrealGDPgrowth12NominalGDPfortheUShasbeencutto1.8%from1.9%104)2018forecastrealGDPgrowthforthe8Eurozonehasbeenincreasedto1.7%6YoYfrom1.6%YoY420-2-4Analyst(s)-6MacquarieCapitalSecurities(Japan)Limited20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
7、201420152016PeterEadon-ClarkeSource:FRBofSt.Louis,Datastream,MacquarieResearch,May2017+81335127850peter.eadon-clarke@macquarie.comNaraSongTheprivatenon-financialsector(households,corporates)intheEurozoneis+81335127878nara.song@macquarie.comMacquarieCapitalMarketsCana
8、daLtd.healing,chartabove.Thisallowspolicytoshifttofiscalreconstruction.DavidDoyle,CFA+14168483663david.doyle@macquarie.comFinancial
