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1、河海大学硕士学位论文苏北运河货运量预测研究姓名：张华申请学位级别：硕士专业：港口海岸及近海工程指导教师：严以新;吴凤平20070301AbstractForecastofCargoVolume，whichisallindispensablepartinitsstrategyresearch,issignificanttothechartingofafuturedirection,thescaleoftheshippingbuildingandtheestablishingofthemanagementpolicy．
2、AfteranalyzingthesituationandinfluencesofrivershippinginGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsu,thepaperforecaststhewholecargovolume,wimqualitativeandquantitativeanalysismethods．ThefinalresultisthetheorybasisofshippingstrategyresearchonGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsu．Ther
3、earesixsectionsinthispaper．Inthepreface,theauthormainlyintroducesthebackgrounds，aim，significance，maincontentandmethodsusedintheresearch,andliteraturesrelated．AfterdescribingthenaturalconditionandtheshippingestablishmentofGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsu,intheseco
4、ndpartthepaperanalysesthedevelopmentsituation,includingthetrendoftheshippingsuchasthedirectionofcargoflow，cargostructure,andwatercraft,theproblems，theimportanceofits．ThenthefactorswhichhaveeffectsonGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsuareanalyzedinthen血dpart,suchasthe
5、macro-changeinourcetmtry,theeconomyofitshinterland，thetrafficsystemetc．TheanalysisofferstheimpersonalbackgroundforforecastingthecargovolumeofGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsu,Inthefourthparttheauthormainlystudiesquantitativemethods．Inthefifthpart，firstlythecargovo
6、lumeofGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsuisforecastwiththequantitativemodels，includinglinearregressionanalysis，exponentialsmoothing,greymodelrevised，andtowcombinedforecastmodels．Thentotakeintoaccountofthetrendofrelatedfactors，thefinalresultisgainedthroughrevisingthe
7、forecastresultabove．FinallytheauthordrawsaconclusionandshowsanexpectationabouttherivershippingdevelopmentofGrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsuandthefurtherresearch．KeyWords：GrandCanalintheNorthofJiangsu，CargoVolume,Back-PropagationNetwork,CombinedForecasting1绪论1．1研究
8、背景交通运输业是经济社会的命脉。没有发达的交通，社会资源的生产和供销活动就无法顺利开展，社会和经济就得不到应有的发展。经过建国以来半个多世纪的建设和发展，我国交通运输业取得了长足的进步。尤其是改革开放以来，我国大力发展交通基础设施建设。铁路、公路、水路、管道和航空等几种运输方式都取得了不同程度的发展，它们之间相互补充、相互协作，逐步形成了完善的现代综合交通运
